Superintendent poll portends massive job cuts in 2010

Texas is not alone in our gloom and doom predictions for school budgets next year. The American Association of School Administrators (AASA)  has been polling superintendents across the country in recent months to examine the impact of the economic downturn on schools. A perfect storm of funding cuts is expected to reach a peak across the nation next year. The tight economic outlook at state and local levels, combined with the end of federal stimulus funds and a proposed shift of dollars from formula grant programs to competitive grant programs, are all destined to hit school budgets at the same time.
 
Superintendents responding to an AASA poll conducted in March 2010  anticipate a sharp increase in personnel cost-cutting measures for the 2010–11 school year.

• Respondents who plan to cut positions will increase from 68 percent in 2009–10 to 90 percent in 2010–11.
• Respondents who plan to reduce health care benefits will rise from 12 percent in 2009–10 to 46 percent in 2010–11.
• Respondents who plan to increase class size will more than double from 26 percent in 2009–10 to 62 percent for 2010–11.

How many jobs will be cut? Another AASA poll in April 2010 found that 82 percent of respondents will cut or eliminate education jobs in 2010–11 and 53 percent will freeze hiring. Projecting the response rate nationally, AASA estimates that the national total for education job cuts in 2010–11 will be 275,000, plus an additional 82,000 job losses in other sectors triggered by the education cuts. The domino effect of so much more unemployment would take a heavy toll on state and local tax revenues.

The one ray of hope appears to be a $23 billion emergency education funding bill now pending in Congress which, if enacted, could help to stave off some of these cuts. AASA has also studied the potential effect of that bill and posted the information on its Web site.